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Power poles - vertical grid load forecasts

Forecast of the Vertical Grid Load and Power Flows

Starting point of the future grid management processes including distributed renewable production is the determination of a vertical load forecast at grid nodes and the calculation of load flow forecasts. Thanks to a method developed by emsys grid services, FuturePowerFlow can forecast the vertical grid load at network nodes of different voltage levels with highest accuracy. On the one hand, we take into account the predicted feed-in from wind, solar, hydropower and biogas plants, and on the other hand, our algorithms take into account the consumption in order to create a residual load forecast.

Based on the forecast of the vertical grid load, FuturePowerFlow can perform a predictive load flow calculation. The basis for this is the respective network model, which can be stored in the platform by the user.

Congestion Calculation

In the process chain of the grid management, in addition to the load flows in the basic case (n-0), in particular a failure variant calculation (n-1) is used to assess potential grid congestions. FuturePowerFlow also offers this calculation in a separate module.

FuturePowerFlow can calculate various scenarios to determine congestion. Static or dynamic methods are applied and also combined. Clustering of assets can be considered as well as cascading failure relationships. The totality of n-0 and n-1 bottlenecks can then be used in the follow-up processes of congestion management.

Dynamic Line Rating

The dynamic line rating of emsys grid services enables grid operators to further exploit the effects of weather-dependent grid capacity. This module can be used to increase the static grid operating limits and allows bigger renewable power flows instead of curtailment of assets.

In fact, the maximum current carrying capacity in conductor ropes depends in particular on the weather situation, especially wind speed. Our forecasts indicate the maximum current carrying capacity of conductor cables for individual voltage sections. The maximum current carrying capacity is calculated on the basis of numerical weather predictions as well on further standing data pertaining to the actual transmission lines with the help of the verified IEEE 738 and Cigré TB 207 models.

Moreover, with this procedure, further statistical parameters and specific evaluations on weather-dependent maximum currents in comparison to estimations of the maximum current carrying capacity of ongoing grid operations can be carried out. Here, uncertainties and areas of uncertainty play an essential role.

Press release: Launch of weather-dependent dynamic line rating 3.0

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